We're back. It has been more than a year since the last issue. Officially, we scratched and spent the time on the vet's list. Unofficially, life got in the way. We have since posted a couple of sharp works, the stewards have cleared us, and we are entered every Thursday from here on.
You know the angle: long layoff, new silks, same connections. Bet us with confidence, or do what we would do and wait to see one race first.
As for this week, racing retired a champion, unretired a jockey and handed a Saratoga picnic-area regular $625,794. The Claiming Crown is Saturday, our Late Pick 3 ticket is at the bottom, and there is a documentary about the time a bookie went broke.
Ted Noffey Retires to Spendthrift
Ted Noffey, the 2025 champion 2-year-old male, has been retired and will stand at Spendthrift Farm in 2027 for an advertised fee of $60,000. The son of Into Mischief won three Grade 1 races at three different tracks.
The same announcement had better news for those of us who prefer horses that keep running. Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Further Ado stays in training at four. The Gun Runner colt earned a 106 Beyer for his photo-finish win at Keeneland.
Read the full story from Paulick Report here.
The quotes in the release come from Spendthrift general manager Ned Toffey, talking about Ted Noffey. We read it three times to be sure.
Smokin' Joe Is Coming Home
Jockey Joe Talamo, 36, is ending his retirement and will ride the Fair Grounds meet that opens Nov. 19. He has not ridden since Oct. 4, 2024, at Santa Anita, and has spent the time since as a host and analyst on FanDuel TV. His agent, Ron Faucheux, broke the news on X.
It is a homecoming. The Marrero, La., native was the first apprentice on record to win a Fair Grounds riding title, in 2006-07, and went on to an Eclipse Award, a Breeders' Cup win and 2,343 victories.
Welcome home, Smokin' Joe.
Read more at Horse Racing Nation and Thoroughbred Daily News.
A year in a TV chair telling us who to bet, and now he has to go ride them. We respect it.
How Do You Go From 267th to First in One Race?
Rob Dolan, a 45-year-old from Saratoga Springs, N.Y., won the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge with one swing. Sitting mid-pack before the Classic, he put $4,495 on a cold exacta, Sovereignty over 17-1 The Puma, and finished with a bankroll of $140,694. Add the $485,100 first prize and his weekend was worth $625,794. The In the Money Podcast had him 267th with one race to go.
The tournament drew a record 693 entries at $10,000 apiece ($2,500 buy-in plus a $7,500 bankroll). Dolan only started playing tournaments in 2025. Before that he played the races from the Saratoga picnic area.
Sovereignty was the most likely winner but The Puma was the value bet.
Read the full recap at Horse Racing Nation, then hear Dolan walk through the weekend on the In the Money Podcast.
We also had strong opinions in the Classic. We did not put $4,495 on them, which is the difference between Rob and us.
Pletcher Suspended Seven Days for Betamethasone Positive
The Horseracing Integrity & Welfare Unit has suspended Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher for seven days and fined him $1,000 after the filly Weetamoo tested positive for betamethasone, a controlled corticosteroid, following an April 17 race at Keeneland, Thoroughbred Daily News reports. His attorney, Drew Mollica, said Pletcher has accepted the penalty and will not appeal, while maintaining the barn followed the medication guidelines.
The suspension began Tuesday. Horses already entered at Belmont and Gulfstream this week are allowed to run. According to Sportsnaut, Weetamoo was disqualified from a nine-length maiden win and her owner forfeits the $50,724 winner's purse.
Our Hot Take: The trainer loses a week and the owner loses a purse. Anyone who bet the runner-up back in April gets nothing, and bettors are the only people in this story without an appeal process.
First Breeders' Cup, One Job: Don't Mess Up
The best Breeders' Cup story surfaced a week late. Kaitlin Lutzen worked her first Breeders' Cup as a pony rider and drew the job of escorting Sovereignty to the gate for the Classic. Jockey Junior Alvarado asked trainer Bill Mott for her because he wanted a pony rider who could go straight into a gallop.
Her pre-race pep talk, with 45,775 people in the building, came down to having one job and not messing it up. She did not mess it up. Sovereignty won, and Lutzen says she could hear Alvarado thanking the horse as they galloped out past the ponies.
He is all racehorse and all business.
Read the full article at Paulick Report here.
One Breeders' Cup, one Classic winner. That strike rate beats ours.
Claiming Crown Saturday at Churchill Downs
Under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.
The 28th Claiming Crown is under the Twin Spires on Saturday, Nov. 14: nine starter allowance races worth a combined $1.2 million on a 12-race card, with first post at 1 p.m. ET.
The horse to know is Kerness K, who brings an 11-race winning streak for trainer Jamie Ness into the $100,000 Ready's Rocket Express (Race 4, 2:28 p.m.), where defending winner Concrete Glory is waiting. The $200,000 Jewel at 1 1/8 miles goes as Race 11 at 5:54 p.m., and the $300,000 Dream Supreme for filly and mare sprinters is Race 3.
Full details in Churchill's barn notes at The Pressbox, and the race-by-race conditions are at the National HBPA.
Santa and Mrs. Claus will be in the Clubhouse from 4:15 to 5:30 p.m., in case you need to ask for a new bankroll.
What Happens When a Billion-Dollar Bookie Goes Bankrupt?
This week's watch is Finish Line: The Rise and Demise of Off-Track Betting, Joseph Fusco's documentary about New York City OTB, and it is free on YouTube.
For nearly 40 years OTB was the legal way to bet the races in New York without going to the track. It handled billions of dollars, helped fund the sport and employed thousands of people. Then, on Dec. 7, 2010, the state shut it down. The film looks at why OTB was created, why it closed, who came out ahead, and what happened to the workers and horseplayers who did not. It won best documentary at four film festivals.
Watch the full documentary here.
A bookie that went broke taking bets on horse racing. We have been trying to do that to one for years.
Rail Chatter
Three things racing Twitter was talking about this week while we should have been handicapping.
@icecoldexacta had a horse ten lengths clear when it was T-boned by a deer. Nobody was hurt, and there is video. We keep a list of the ways we have lost a race, and it just got longer.
@atTheTrack7 added up $88.7 million in sale-ring purchases that have earned $655,000 on the track between them. The Green Monkey cost $16 million and won back $10,000. Our worst Pick 5 ticket had a better return.
@CraigMilkowski is not happy about a horse he says dropped into a maiden claimer, won, and then had the claim voided. @ry_metzger has a suggestion: let the new owner attend the vet inspection and decide then whether to keep the horse. It sounds sensible, so we are not getting our hopes up.
THE TICKET
Claiming Crown Late Pick 3, Saturday Nov. 14 (Races 10-12)
We are kicking off the Late Pick 3, which starts in Race 10, and trying to catch some prices. All three races look wide open on paper to us, so why not lean toward the pricier side where we can?
Race 10. Seven furlongs for 3-year-olds and up that have started for a claiming price of $16,000 or less in 2025-26. We are rooting for #2 Try to Make Cents, who picks up Joe Sharp as the new trainer and hot bug boy Yomar Ortiz Jr. as the rider. A cutback makes a ton of sense for the new connections. Then we are leaning on #11 Zero Blitz, who has had a solid year against some fairly tough company.
Race 11. Watch out, Linda's in town, so we will throw in #3 Papa Yo. Tyler hops off the #4 Maker horse to ride this one and could work out an ideal trip. Then we will try to get home #2 Margie's Fun Son, who gets a little more ground to work with, and we like that Saez picks up the mount. Ron Abrams does not ship here often, but when he does he wins at 16% and hits the board 46% of the time, so we think this horse is at the very least well meant. Worth a shot at what should be every bit of the morning line.
Race 12. Captain Obvious says #2 Unit Economics (GB) looks tough in this spot for Chad Brown. We are not going to get cute and play against that one, but we will also use #5 McCullough as a backup, because who knows what Jamie Ness has in store.
The ticket: 2, 11 / 2, 3 / 2, 5 = $24
We like to build tickets on the cheaper side. That leaves you room to work in your own opinion, or toss ours entirely, and at the end of the day you cannot get beat up too bad.
